Eps 1250: galgame
— The too lazy to register an account podcast
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The RBNZ has also recognised rising inflationary pressures on house prices and the central bank will have to watch the data if it wants to shock the market. Given the contrast in policy paths, there is a strong correlation between the performance of the New Zealand dollar and that of the Australian dollar, according to Audrey O'Neill, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. The Australian and Kiwi dollars are better than the US dollars simply because of high yields, while their central banks have so far resisted adopting even more hawkish policy language, she said.
Tapering is nearing its end and central bank chiefs are ready to talk now, but waiting for growth to resume risks falling into the trap of provoking political hyperbole, she said.
The RBA's latest outlook shows an upbeat growth and employment performance, confident that it will continue to pump monetary support into the economy until it is fully repaired, and ready to bring faster wage growth and inflation back to its target. Meanwhile, Norway, which does not need to use the same level of monetary stimulus as the US Federal Reserve, is already talking about raising interest rates. The currency trio led the Group of 10 with gains of more than 4% in the first half of the year. But the acceleration may lose momentum if policymakers show their hand.
Canada's move "could give the political community a little more confidence to take more aggressive steps on monetary policy," he added.
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It was a delicate balancing act for central bankers to pull out of the program that averted economic collapse last year. One strategy was to follow the commodity boom and focus on Australia and New Zealand, where growth is surging again.
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